The cryptocurrency market is reeling from Bitcoin’s recent significant price drop from its peak around $100,000. This dramatic shift has sparked widespread speculation about the market’s future movements.
Our previous targets successfully predicted a move toward the $100k peak, followed by a retracement to approximately $82,000—which is exactly where the market headed.
But what happens now? Is the worst over, or are we staring down the barrel of a deeper bear market? Here is my analysis of the current situation, my personal trading strategy, and the critical levels you must watch.
Current Market Sentiment: Beware the “Dead Cat Bounce”
Bitcoin is currently hovering in the $86,000 region. While some traders are anxiously looking for an immediate rebound, the overall outlook demands extreme caution.
Following a sharp decline like this, it is very common to see a “relief rally.” However, you must be wary of misleading short-term gains. This could easily be a “dead cat bounce”—a temporary recovery that lures inexperienced traders in before the downward trend continues with renewed force.
Do not mistake a short-term green candle for a long-term upward trend right now.
The Critical Technical Line: $98,000 Resistance
If you are looking at the charts, there is one line in the sand that matters more than any other right now: $98,000.
Why is this level so important?
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It coincides with the 50-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the weekly chart, a major indicator of long-term trend strength.
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It represents previous support that has likely now flipped into formidable resistance.
The Scenario is Clear:
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A confirmed weekly close above $98,000 would indicate that bulls are regaining control, potentially invalidating the bearish thesis.
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Conversely, failing to break through this $98k ceiling will likely confirm that the bearish trend is dominant, and lower prices are ahead.
My Trading Strategy: Locking in $15M and Looking Ahead
Transparency is key in trading. Leading up to this market correction, I took a strategic approach and took profits off the table, realizing approximately $15 million USD in gains from previous trades.
While I still retain about $2.5 million USD in unrealized profits and remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential recovery, my short-term strategy is defensive.
Future Price Targets and Buy Zones
If the downward momentum continues and we reject the $98k resistance, I foresee the possibility of Bitcoin testing lower support levels around $75,000.
However, I am actively looking for re-entry opportunities. If Bitcoin dips back below $82,000, I plan to strategically open new long positions, capitalizing on the fear in the market at that specific level.
Conclusion
To summarize: The market is experiencing extreme volatility. While short-term fluctuations always present trading opportunities, caution is currently your best asset.
Watch the $98,000 weekly close like a hawk. It will dictate the next major move. Remain optimistic about the long term, but keep your predictions—and your trades—grounded in the current, realistic market trend.
